Sanders would not have won NH without vote splitting

This particular primary is interesting because the voters are not FailVote’s stereotypes of a voter who has one core first choice and the remaining candidates are significantly worse.

Sanders got 26%, Buttigieg got 24%, and Klobuchar got 20%. From what I can tell, B and K share the moderate base, so I think with Approval Voting they would probably help each other more than, say, Warren would boost Sanders (she also overlaps Buttigieg somewhat).

IRV probably would have elected Buttigieg, but it depends more on how Warren’s votes and Biden’s votes transfer, and not how much Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters like each other’s candidate.


Somebody should write an editorial about this

“Winning” a primary doesn’t mean much. The delegate allocation was 9 delegates for Sanders, 9 for Buttigieg, and 6 for Klobuchar.

I wouldn’t count on it. Voters have really weird voting patterns.